Your client is about to question 10% to 20% of their Google budget. Prove it first.

Short answer: Media buyers told Digiday that the last 10% to 20% of a Google search budget is now getting questioned. Pull 90 days of spend, match it to real leads and closed work, and make the call on that slice yourself before the client makes it in January. (Digiday, Nov 2, 2026)

TLDR

• Digiday spoke with 18 media buyers. The ranges quoted run from about 10% to as high as 30%. Those are their estimates, not survey data.
• Alphabet's search ad revenue grew 12% in Q3, its slowest pace this year, per Digiday.
• Rank campaigns by cost per real lead. Cut the bottom slice yourself. Test one alternative with a fixed budget.

What changed with Google search budgets?

For years search was the line nobody had to defend. Digiday's Krystal Scanlon and Sam Bradley reported on Nov 2 that clients are now "putting Google through the kind of scrutiny usually saved for newer channels," based on conversations with 18 media buyers.

Lindsay Marty, founder of Above the Bar Marketing, told Digiday: "We're having to look much more closely at what happens after the click and whether those clicks are actually producing qualified leads and revenue."

She put a number on it: "The amount being questioned is generally around 10% to 20% of the Google budget when that conversation comes up."

Other buyers gave their own ranges. Bryce Hamlin of Power Digital said 10% to 30%. Farhad Divecha of Accuracast said about 10% for now, possibly 20% to 30% around Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Treat these as estimates from agencies that mostly serve mid-sized and larger advertisers. Scale the lesson to your accounts.

Why is this happening now?

Digiday gives three reasons. AI Overviews answer more queries on the results page. That leaves fewer prime ad slots, and Google's automated bidding pays up for the ones left. Q4 adds seasonal bidders.

The cost side keeps climbing. Michelle Merklin of Tinuiti told Digiday branded keyword CPCs rose 5% in Q3. Impressions and clicks also climbed, so advertisers are paying a bit more for a bigger pool of demand.

And Google's own number: search ad revenue grew 12% in the third quarter, Alphabet's slowest pace this year, with executives blaming part of the slowdown on AI Mode. (Digiday, Nov 2, 2026)

Are advertisers leaving Google?

No, and don't tell clients they are. Victor Batista of Jellyfish told Digiday that budget diversification remained "generally contained within the Google ecosystem," with money moving toward AI Max, Performance Max, YouTube and Demand Gen.

Google's spokesperson said its AI-powered campaigns help advertisers "capture these new opportunities, while keeping them firmly in control."

The point is narrower. The marginal dollar now has to earn its place. Marty again: "The incremental 10% to 20% is becoming less automatic. Advertisers increasingly want Google to prove that spend is still the best use of those dollars."

"Ten years with no questions isn't loyalty. It's a client who hasn't looked yet. Walk in before they do: here's every dollar, what it booked, and the slice I'd cut. Bring them the bad news first and you keep the account."

What does doing nothing cost?

The client or a competing agency runs this math in January. They decide which 20% goes. You lose the budget and the conversation about where it went. (Opinion, Head of Content)

The 90-day check

1. Export the last 90 days of Google Ads spend by campaign.
2. Match it to booked calls, CRM leads and closed jobs. Not clicks. Not platform conversions alone.
3. Rank campaigns by cost per real lead.
4. Mark the bottom 10% to 20% of spend. Pause it or rebuild it before anyone asks.
5. Pick one alternative (Local Services Ads, Meta or YouTube). Give it a fixed budget and the same lead definition for 30 days.
6. Write one page for the client: what you cut, what you tested, what you will judge it on.

The 30-day window and the bottom-slice rule are an operating suggestion, not a benchmark. (Opinion, Head of Content)

Next step

Who: the agency owner and the paid search lead on each account over a set monthly spend. What: the 90-day spend-to-leads table and the one-page client note. When: before your 2027 budget conversations, ideally before Black Friday. How: the six steps above, shared with the client in your next monthly review.